Overview
Tanzania is located in East Africa bordering Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia and the Indian Ocean. Its present boundaries date to 1964, when Tanganyika and Zanzibar were merged shortly after independence. Tanzania has a population of 37.5 million and a GDP per capita of $700. Agriculture accounts for half of GDP, although industrial production and the extraction of gold and other minerals are also important. The population of mainland Tanzania is 99% indigenous African (mostly Bantu) and 1% other ethnicities (Asian, European and Arab). Zanzibar’s population is a mix of Arabs and native Africans. Mainland Tanzania’s religious composition is 30% Christian, 35% Muslim, and 35% indigenous beliefs. Zanzibar is 99% Muslim.
Social Indicators
Tanzania received high ratings for the social indicators in the Failed States Index (FSI) 2005, although all indicators improved in the FSI 2006. Demographic pressures was rated 9.0 in the FSI 2005, but this improved to 7.0 in the FSI 2006. Tanzania has a population growth rate of 1.83%, an infant mortality rate of 96 per 1,000 live births, a low life expectancy of 46 years and an HIV prevalence of 8.8%. The improvement in this rating was partially due to government efforts to fight HIV, including the provision of anti-retrovirals to 44,000 by the end of 2005. The goal was to expand the provision of anti-retrovirals to 500,000 by the end of 2008. The rating for refugees and displaced persons also fell from 7.2 in the FSI 2005 to 6.8 in the FSI 2006 as the large number of refugees in Tanzania from Burundi and the DRC decreased as several thousand refugees returned home.
Group grievance improved from a rating of 7.6 in the FSI 2005 to 6.0 in the FSI 2006. There were incidents of religious and political violence on Zanzibar and the other islands in 2004, resulting in a high rating for group grievance in the FSI 2005. The situation improved the following year, causing the rating to improve in the FSI 2006, despite temporary political infighting leading up to the 2005 presidential elections. The rating for human flight also improved from 6.7 in the FSI 2005 to 6.0 in the FSI 2006, largely due to an improved economic outlook.
Economic Indicators
Uneven development improved from a rating of 8.9 in the FSI 2005 to 7.0 in the FSI 2006 due to improvements in agricultural production, which employs two thirds of Tanzania’s population. Agriculture was severely affected by a drought in 2003 but began to recover in 2004 and improved still further in 2005. The Tanzanian economy grew by 6.7% in 2004, which accounts for the low rating of 4.5 for the economy in the FSI 2005. Agriculture accounts for a large percentage of GDP, however, making the economy vulnerable to droughts and fluctuations in commodity prices. Although economic growth remained relatively stable between 2004 and 2005, Tanzania’s budget deficit widened by almost 80% in 2005, causing the rating for the economy to rise to 7.0 in the FSI 2006.
Political/Military Indicators
Legitimacy of the state improved from a rating of 8.2 in the FSI 2005 to 6.5 in the FSI 2006, mostly due to the presidential elections that were held in December 2005. President Jakaya Kikwete was elected by a large majority in elections that proceeded smoothly with little violence, and that were freer and fairer than previous elections. Official corruption remained high, however. Public services remained at 7.8 in the FSI 2005 and the FSI 2006. Approximately 31% of Tanzanian adults were illiterate and Tanzania had a life expectancy of only 46 years, indicating that public services were insufficient.
Human rights improved from a rating of 8.6 in the FSI 2005 to 6.0 in the FSI 2006. Although Tanzania’s human rights record still needs improvement, there were some significant developments, including increased respect for citizens’ political rights, reduced mob violence, and fewer incidents of excessive force by police. The rating for the security apparatus also improved from 7.9 in the FSI 2005 to 6.0 in the FSI 2006. Local security was often carried out by neighborhood anti-crime militias known as sungusungu. These groups have been accused of using excessive force in recent years, but such allegations decreased in 2005. The rating for factionalized elites fell from 7.5 in the FSI 2005 to 5.2 in the FSI 2006 as a result of the 2005 election, in which power was transferred to Jakaya Kikwete after the ten-year rule of Benjamin Mkapa, the maximum allowed under the constitution. Although both politicians belong to the ruling CCM party, the smooth transfer of power is a step towards further consolidation of democracy in Tanzania. External influence remained almost constant at 7.1 in the FSI 2005 and 7.0 in the FSI 2006. The high ratings for this indicator are mostly due to Tanzania’s continued high dependence on foreign aid.
Core Five State Institutions
| Leadership | Military | Police | Judiciary | Civil Service |  |  |  | | | | Moderate | Weak | Poor | Weak | Moderate |
Tanzania recently elected a new president in elections that were carried out better than previous elections. The new president is expected to continue the economic reforms of his predecessor.
The military has been depoliticized since the transition to multi-party democracy in 1995, although it remains an important political force and many senior officers are connected to the ruling CCM party.
The police force was inefficient and under funded. The police were also implicated in human rights abuses such as torture, unlawful killings and the excessive use of force. Corruption and impunity were also serious problems within the police force.
Judicial independence has been increasing since the beginning of multiparty democracy in 1995, but corruption is still a problem and the judicial system is slow and inefficient.
The civil service was relatively efficient, although corruption remained a problem.
Prognosis
Tanzania is performing fairly well economically and the 2005 elections were encouraging in terms of its progress toward multiparty democracy. There is still significant room for improvement in poverty reduction, public services and human rights, but on the whole Tanzania is fairly stable with good prospects for the future.
Copyright (C) 2006 The Fund for Peace |
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